The socialist electoral calendar for 2023 (so far)
Welcome to Socialism on the Ballot. It’s been awhile! Rest assured I am still working on all the stuff I said I was, but this blog has been in need of a sabbatical and things have not gotten that much better from my last update, so this has been on the backburner.
However, we’re quickly coming up on some of 2023’s election days (and one such minor day has already passed), and I think it’s time to write some stuff about that. Let’s get started.
California ADEM elections
In 2021, at least 129 DSA members ran in California’s ADEM (Assembly District Elections Meeting) elections, and of those members 76 won. It was somewhat inevitable this wouldn’t be matched this year—ADEMs have little actual power and DSA-LA in particular has focused its political priorities elsewhere in the subsequent two years—and indeed, only 46 members that I know of ran this year. This was probably for the better: the 46 that ran were not formally endorsed by any chapters this year and were generally crushed.
Down from a 59% win rate in 2021, these 46 candidates went a pretty sparse 19 wins to 27 losses. That works out to a 41.3% win rate; additionally, from what I can tell, a number of DSA member incumbents were ousted. Given the overall political trajectory of California DSA chapters and these results, my suspicion is even fewer—if any—members will run for these in 2025.
Luckily, ADEMs are a largely bureaucratic process and not of significance electorally speaking.
The state of endorsements so far
To this point in the year, 7 DSA chapters have made a combined 25 endorsements. This is—not surprisingly—down substantially from 2022 when 46 endorsements had been made by this time of year; but it’s also down from 2021, when 43 had been made. This mostly seems to be a function of timing rather than chapters being more selective in who they endorse: there are simply fewer off-cycle municipal elections timed to cycle with years like 2023 than years like 2021. Some chapters which will endorse may also be holding off until later in the year.
The seven chapters which have endorsed candidates currently are: DSA Ventura County (California); Denver DSA (Colorado); Chicago DSA (Illinois); St. Louis DSA (Missouri); Philadelphia DSA (Pennsylvania); Champlain Valley DSA (Vermont); and Milwaukee DSA (Wisconsin). Of their 25 endorsements, at least 20 are members that I know of (with another 3 intending to join the organization) and 6 are incumbent elected officials.
In order, here are when their endorsements will be on the ballot.
Chicago DSA: February 28 and April 4
Chicago DSA is currently running the most extensive slate of any chapter, clocking in at an astonishing 10 candidates. In addition to defending incumbents Daniel La Spata (Ward 1), Jeanette Taylor (Ward 20), Byron Sigcho-Lopez (Ward 25), Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez (Ward 33), and Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (Ward 35), the chapter has its sights set on six new wards and is backing a member in each. Those wards and members are:
Oscar Sanchez (Ward 10)
Ambria Taylor (Ward 11)
Warren Williams (Ward 30)
Angela Clay (Ward 46)
Nick Ward (Ward 48)
Mueze Bawany(Ward 50)Earlier this morning, Bawany’s endorsement was formally revoked after he disavowed BDS and distanced himself from both the defund movement and the label socialist. Swing and a miss, Mueze!
It seems pretty likely the chapter will defend all of its incumbents; thus, the February elections will mostly be interesting to see if any of the new endorsements can break through in the first round. Some of these races may go to runoffs, which would occur on April 4. If—heaven forbid—all of these candidates win their elections (plus non-endorsed member Vicko Alvarez in Ward 15), it will make for quite a footprint in the city of Chicago:
However, I think the most likely outcome is the existing Chicago DSA caucus holds its own and expands by one or two, as happened last year with NYC-DSA’s ambitious state legislative slate. It’s hard to say from the outside looking in, but Nick Ward and Ambria Taylor seem like the best bets to score victories of the non-incumbents. These will be good races to watch on February 28, and probably April 4.
Champlain Valley DSA: March 7
In Burlington, Vermont, Champlain Valley DSA is backing Rhone Allison for Burlington City Council, Ward 8. Allison is a CVDSA member and running on a platform of mass-municipalization, protecting worker rights, expanding the right to vote to all residents of the city, and more. Allison is running against Democrat Hannah King, and secured the Vermont Progressive Party endorsement earlier this month. Ward 8 has been a Progressive stronghold, so Allison should win this seat.
Champlain Valley was also intending to run a second candidate in the East District, Adam Franz; however, Franz dropped out after failing to secure the Progressive endorsement in a landslide. He made this decision on the basis that his continued campaign might strain relations between CVDSA and the Burlington VPP (who otherwise have decent relations) and that the result clearly indicated there was no mandate for his candidacy.
DSA Ventura County: March 7
A special election has Michaela Perez running for Oxnard City Council District 6 as a DSA Ventura County chapter member. Ventura County has historically been a pretty quiet chapter on the electoral front (they endorsed Daniel Wilson in Assembly District 38 last year and that appears to be the extent of their electoral record), but they clearly see an opportunity in this seat and Perez actually appears to be the seat’s frontrunner.
Perez is running against two opponents: Francine Castanon and Arthur Valenzuela Jr. Of the two, Valenzuela Jr. appears to be the more serious challenger—he has the endorsement of most of the labor unions in the race and Planned Parenthood, along with a variety of community leaders and local officials. Comparatively Perez has the backing of Congresswoman Julia Brownley and most of the city’s local Democratic Party organizations. Whether Castanon has any endorsements is not clear to me; she does not appear to have a website.
I don’t know if I’d call Perez the favorite, but this is definitely a chance for the chapter to make a splash.
St. Louis DSA: March 7 and April 4
I’m not clear on her membership, but St. Louis DSA is backing Katie Bellis in St. Louis City Council Ward 2; the chapter is fresh off successfully electing Megan Green to the city’s second highest position (Board of Aldermen President) and briefly held a second city council seat through member Jimmy Lappe (Ward 11). There is a pretty good case for optimism in chapter’s electoral work here, and Bellis aligns well with the chapter’s political priorities.
Ward 2 will be difficult ground for the chapter, however. In the Board of Aldermen President election last year, Ward 2 was a bad ward for Green, who lost it by a decisive margin of 62-37 against Jack Coatar. Furthermore, Bellis is not well supported outside of the chapter and is challenging incumbent Thomas Robert Oldenburg for the seat. She’ll be given a leg up by St. Louis’s switch to an approval voting system (in which people can vote for as many candidates as they like and the top-two votegetters advance to an April 4 runoff), but it’s hard to see a path to victory in this particular ward for St. Louis DSA. Stranger things have happened, though!
Milwaukee DSA: April 4
Coinciding with the 2023 Wisconsin general election, Milwaukee DSA have endorsed two candidates: Missy Zombor for Milwaukee Board of School Directors and Sam Harshner for Shorewood Village Trustee at-large. Although the statewide primary is on February 21, both candidates are running in races where the primary has been cancelled due to limited opposition.
After several cycles of mixed results. Milwaukee DSA finally broke through last year and successfully elected two candidates: Darrin Madison and Ryan Clancy. It’s clear that the chapter wants to build off of this—and not just in a low stakes race. Rather than running in a district seat (as previous MKEDSA candidates Alex Brower and Dana Kelley did in 2021), chapter member Missy Zombor is running for the at-large seat, effectively making her a citywide candidate. To this point it definitely seems like the wind is at her back: she has consolidated the support of the Board President, the local Democratic Party, the local Green Party, and most of the unions in the city. She’s also outspent Jeff Spence, her sole opponent. Two months is a long time in politics, of course, but I suspect this may be a coup for Milwaukee DSA in the city.
Meanwhile in adjacent suburb Shorewood, the chapter is looking to build off of Darrin Madison’s State Assembly victory. Madison carried the majority-white suburb in the primary where he defeated Bryan Kennedy last year, and presumably Sam Harshner saw an opportunity. I’m not sure if Harshner, a self-identified democratic socialist, is a member; nonetheless, he could represent the beginning of the chapter’s success in Milwaukee’s suburban areas if his campaign is successful. Keep an eye out here.
Denver DSA: April 4 and June 6
Denver DSA is running a near-full slate for the city this year, in a bid to massively expand the chapter’s influence over city politics. The chapter has quite a list of successes in the electoral sphere to this point—electing members Julie Salazar in 2018; Candi CdeBaca, Juan Marcano, and Alison Coombs in 2019; and Javier Mabry and Elizabeth Epps in 2022—and it seems more than possible for them to take multiple council seat this year. Outside of CdeBaca who is elected in District 9 and is an incumbent they have re-endorsed, the slate is entirely newcomers. Those newcomers are:
Tiffany Caudill (District 2)
Tony Pigford (District 4)
Shontel Lewis (District 8)
Shannon Hoffman (District 10)
Sarah Parady (at-large)
Of the six, Caudill, CdeBaca, Hoffman, and Parady are current DSA members; Pigford, and Lewis have committed to joining at a future point. The chapter also endorsed non-member Micaela Iron Shell-Dominguez for District 1 (who committed to joining as well), but she failed to make the ballot and would have to run as a write-in at this point.
Besides CdeBaca, Tony Pigford and Tiffany Caudill seem like they have the easiest paths forward—Pigford in particular has just one opponent, and Caudill is essentially running against the incumbent and nobody else. In Shontel Lewis and Shannon Hoffman’s races, a runoff (where if nobody gets 50% the top-two votegetters advance) seems likely due to sheer number of candidates. Sarah Parady’s at-large race is elected by plurality, so she’s hoping to be a top-two candidate there. All runoffs would occur on June 6.
Philadelphia DSA: May 16
Finally, Philadelphia DSA has four races it’s endorsed in that will take place during the statewide primary on May 16. David McMahon (Norristown City Council D2), Andrés Celin (Philadelphia City Council D7), Seth Anderson-Oberman (Philadelphia City Council D8), and Amanda McIllmurray (Philadelphia City Council at-large) are all running with chapter backing. McIllmurray and McMahon are both chapter members, while I’m unsure of Celin and Anderson-Oberman’s affiliation.
Philadelphia has been mostly a success story for socialists, although there is obviously plenty of room to expand the chapter’s influence. Three Philly DSA chapter members (Nikil Saval; Rick Krajewski; Elizabeth Fiedler) currently serve in the State Legislature, and WFP member Kendra Brooks in part won her seat on Philadelphia’s City Council because of DSA members canvassing for her. With a chaotic scramble for mayor and huge turnover opening several seats this year, this looks like a decisive test of how much influence socialists really have in the city.
Celin and Anderson-Oberman’s races have been fairly lowkey thus far—it’s not clear who they’re running against yet. McMahon’s barely has any information on it since papers to file have only just started circulating and don’t close for another month or so. It’s actually possible he’s the only candidate for that race so far. None of what I’ve just said can be said for McIllmurray’s race, however. Philadelphia’s at-large seats are, to put it mildly, a clusterfuck. The Democratic primary for the at-large seats can draw dozens of candidacies—no less than thirty candidates ran for the five Democratic seats in 2019—and this year there are already nine besides McIllmurray. Fortunately, it seems that McIllmurray has already consolidated a large amount of progressive support within the Democratic Party and established herself as a frontrunner. This is vital if she’s going to be competitive. Cautious optimism here.